Claire's Random Thoughts

My resolutions:
1. Stop buying chocolate
The idea behind this one is simple. If I don’t buy it attempting and failing miserably to stock up, then I won’t eat it so much. This will make maintaining my weight significantly easier.

2. Truly study and focus when I plan to study, and have a set schedule for actuarial exam preparation
Otherwise, I just end up wasting time and not even having fun when I set aside time to study. If I plan to, then why not do so? This also leads into the next item on my list.

3. Pass exam P and exam FM by the end of the year
Getting an internship has been perpetually getting more competitive. Two exams complete definitely wouldn’t hurt at this point.

4. Improve my relationships with family/friends
Maybe I spend too much time online and not enough with real people, and that requires some change. I need some balance in the way I spend my extra time.

5. Have a small conversation with at least one stranger per day
This is also related to item 4 on my list, and it seems like a good way to expand the small list of people I know and talk to

6. Get my first real job/internship
Only essential for career advancement

7. Stop using bad weather as an excuse for not going to the gym
I should really go

8. Get under 118 lbs. again
I understand why people gain weight in college now, because it’s happened to me. This should be fairly easy if I can keep #1 and #7

Now for some New Year’s Resolutions Statistics:
That’s right, I’m going to be an actuary, so I can’t help but assign numbers to everything.

There is a strong negative correlation between happiness and the likelihood of setting resolutions. That is, the less happy you are, the more likely you are to set resolutions.
I wouldn’t consider myself as too happy relative to the general population, so I’m setting resolutions

Only 8% of people are always successful in achieving their resolutions. 19% achieve their resolutions every other year. 49% have infrequent success. 24% (one in four people) NEVER succeed and have failed on every resolution every year. That means that 3 out of 4 people almost never succeed.
So, why do we bother setting resolutions if we’re so likely to break them? Maybe this year will be different for me now that I have this on my blog. Yes, I will share about how these go, so that will be another incentive for me to keep my resolutions.

It appears that the younger you are, the more likely you are to achieve your resolutions
39% of those in their twenties achieve their resolutions every year or every other year
Less than 15% of those over 50 achieve their resolutions every year or every other year
Maybe that’s good news for me, because I am only 20 years old, so this works in my favor.

Now, let’s take a look at the top 10 most popular New Year’s Resolutions:
1. Spend more time with family and friends
Hmm…why does this seem to resemble one of mine?
2. Fit in Fitness
Yet again, related to one on my list
3. Tame the Bulge (aka lose weight)
Again?
4. Quit smoking
This probably would be on mine too if I smoked
5. Enjoy life more
Well, the things I put on mine are designed to help me enjoy my future life more
6. Quit drinking
If I were of age and an alcoholic, this would probably be on mine too. But, when you’re in college, you might as well take advantage of the things you can get away with
7. Get out of debt
I’m too careful financially at this point in life to have to worry about that, thankfully
8. Learn something new
Well, that’s sort of on my list. I wanted to study more, which means learning more material.
9. Help others
Maybe I’m just too selfish
10. Get organized
I need to do that too, or rather, stay organized.

Really, I didn’t look at the list before making my own. It’s interesting to see the resemblance.

Now, are you ready for the biggest, most astounding statistic?
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There is no correlation between happiness and resolution setting/success. In other words, achieving resolutions does not make the resolution setter any happier than he/she would be if he/she failed at keeping the resolution.
Considering that fact, why am I even setting resolutions that should not make me happy if I keep? I don’t really know, but part of me thinks that I’ll have an improved lifestyle whether I realize or not, if I can keep the resolutions. This sounds bleak, but maybe some people are just born happier than others are. So, something as insignificant as resolution setting/achieving tends to have a minuscule effect on happiness, because happiness is largely ingrained in our personalities and is extremely difficult to change. So, I’m setting my resolutions for the sake of proving myself to myself and lifestyle improvement whether achieving them will make me happy or not.

I always had an interest in poker since the day I learned how to play it. Even though I’m not of casino gambling age, it has always been a medium of adrenaline rush unlike any other for me. It’s amazing how much the game can relate to the business world. Maybe if I play poker more often, I can also become a more successful businessperson. After all, if a CEO says that “everything he knows about business he learned from poker,” poker skills may be even more important than I thought they were.

EVALUATING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES

• Table selection is the most important decision you can make.
• It’s okay to switch tables if you discover it’s too hard to win at your table.
• If there are too many competitors (some irrational or inexperienced), even if you’re the best it’s a lot harder to win.

MARKETING AND BRANDING

• Act weak when strong, act strong when weak. Know when to bluff.
• Your “brand” is important.
• Help shape the stories that people are telling about you.

FINANCIALS

• Always be prepared for the worst possible scenario.
• The guy who wins the most hands is not the guy who makes the most money in the long run.
• The guy who never loses a hand is not the guy who makes the most money in the long run.
• Go for positive expected value, not what’s least risky.
• Make sure your bankroll is large enough for the game you’re playing and the risks you’re taking.
• Play only with what you can afford to lose.
• Remember it’s a long term game. You will win or lose individual sessions, but it’s what happens in the long term that matters.

STRATEGY

• Don’t play games that you don’t understand, even if you see lots of other people making money from them.
• Figure out the game when the stakes aren’t high.
• Don’t cheat. Cheaters never win in the long run.
• Stick to your principles.
• You need to adjust your style of play throughout the night as the dynamics of the game change. Be flexible.
• Be patient and think long term.
• The players with the most stamina and focus usually win.
• Differentiate yourself. Do the opposite of what the rest of the table is doing.
• Hope is not a good plan.
• Don’t let yourself go “on tilt”. It’s much more cost effective to take a break, walk around, or leave the game for the night.

CONTINUAL LEARNING

• Educate yourself. Read books and learn from others who have done it before.
• Learn by doing. Theory is nice, but nothing replaces actual experience.
• Learn by surrounding yourself with talented players.
• Just because you win a hand doesn’t mean you’re good and you don’t have more learning to do. You might have just gotten lucky.
• Don’t be afraid to ask for advice.

CULTURE

• You’ve gotta love the game. To become really good, you need to live it and sleep it.
• Don’t be cocky. Don’t be flashy. There’s always someone better than you.
• Be nice and make friends. It’s a small community.
• Share what you’ve learned with others.
• Look for opportunities beyond just the game you sat down to play. You never know who you’re going to meet, including new friends for life or new business contacts.
• Have fun. The game is a lot more enjoyable when you’re trying to do more than just make money.

This was originally posted on Zappos Blog by CEO Tony H. He’s working on a book about the business and poker concept. When it comes out, it might be one of the few books I pick up.

Ever since I heard of the “bag of crap” on Woot, I’ve always wanted one. It’s also tradition for woot to sell these during midnight between Christmas and Christmas Eve, which was tonight (or technically this morning).

Actually, I thought I had missed out, because after I clicked the final ordering button, I got some kind of internal server error message. Due to the high popularity of these bags of crap, I expected the server to be extremely slow during this sale, but I can’t say I wasn’t disappointed when I thought I had missed out when the server crashed instead of loading my confirmation page. I soon learned that I didn’t at 1:17 am when I got my confirmation email! I guess their servers were just a little slow due to the high volume of traffic.

For those of you who don’t know, Woot is the oldest one-deal-per-day site. They sell one miscellaneous item per day starting at midnight central time, and that item is for sale for either until it is out of stock or midnight the next day. They used to have excellent deals a couple years back, but their products and prices haven’t been as good lately, in my opinion.

Anyway, once in a while they have a random “bag of crap” sale, in which they sell miscellaneous junk that they couldn’t get rid of during their regular sales. The contents in their bags of crap range from merchandise with “Woot” logos to rumored excellent valuable products that some claim to be as good as a TV (which I highly doubt, but anyway, I want to try my luck).

This time, they did something a little different than they did with their previous bag of crap sales. Instead of making a single random bag of crap $1 and giving buyers the option of buying 1, 2, or 3, they made it $3 and only allowed the purchase of one. I guess this was done, because most people who purchased these in the past bought three due to the flat $5 shipping charge and the low additional cost of the next two items.

When I get my bag of crap, I’ll make sure to post pictures of what I got
Hopefully, I’ll have a firsthand experience in confirming the rumors of awesome “crap” items people claim to receive. I should, however, understand that I shouldn’t be too disappointed if my three items are really crappy.

When I see a deal good enough for me to profit from, I simply can’t resist. This mess started with this thread.

Seems like a good deal, right? Buy the Canon SD1100 camera which is a very popular and easily resellable model for $89.99 plus shipping and ebay it for $150+, even a better deal if you buy two, because shipping is the same price. So guess what? I bought two.

A few days later, I got a call from Chase (I used my Chase card to pay for this purchase) with a potential fraud alert. They had me verify a charge from “an electronics store”, so since I remembered that I ordered my two Canon SD1100 cameras, I verified the charge. Obviously, a company should be held suspicious if even credit card companies know that they may be fraudulent. I briefly considered this when I got the phone call, but I still wanted to trust Conns and hoped to received my package soon.

For those of you who don’t know, I buy and sell a lot of things on the internet to make a little money that I treat as my allowance. I ordered two Canon SD1100 cameras online about a week ago for a great price and have been waiting on them for over a week so I could have inventory to sell. Today, a FedEx package that I had been anticipating for about a week arrived on my front porch. I was momentarily excited when it came, because I was running low on inventory, and it would be a great replenishment.

I was expecting two Canon SD1100’s, because they were what I ordered. Simple, isn’t it? To my dismay, I opened the package to find two unfamiliar looking boxes (yes, I know how Canon boxes look like by now). It turns out that I somehow received two worthless Samsung BL1050 cameras. Obviously, the initial excitement quickly faded away. You know what was even more ridiculous? The enclosed note it came with. So, they finally admitted that they didn’t send me the products I ordered. If you’re out of the damn item I ordered, let me know and give me the opportunity to cancel my order before you substitute whatever piece of shit you could find! I find it almost hilarious how they tried to convince me that their replacement could possibly be better than the camera I ordered. If so, then why is the retail price only half of that of the Canon SD1100? Maybe because there is absolutely no contest in image quality? One’s a well known camera brand name while the other’s just some regular electronics manufacturer? Seriously, Conns. If you don’t want to honor your sale price for the product you were advertising as “on sale” for $89.99, the right thing for you to do would be to simply cancel the order. You clearly had no intentions of selling me the camera I ordered if you just baited and switched. Calling the Samsung BL1050 an “upgrade” from a Canon SD1100 is just absolutely ludicrous. It’s like buying a Ferrari and receiving a Mustang as an “upgrade”.

On top of everything else, I’m personally insulted that someone would think I’m stupid enough to accept the evidently inferior cameras as an “upgrade”.

Maybe if a company names itself “Conns” it should hint that they’re con-artists. I have officially first-handedly experience the bait and switch scam. I guess when you buy and sell as many things as I do on the internet, it’s only inevitable that you will get scammed every once in a while. That’s what credit card buyer protection is for, I guess.

I’m really tempted to send some crappier $30 digital camera and write a note saying “Sorry, but the camera you sent me was not the one I wanted, so I’m returning one that’s an upgrade over the one you sent me.” Unfortunately, I still value my refund, so this plan will not take effect.

Anyway, as the note instructed me to do if I didn’t want to accept my “upgrade”, I sent the cameras back using the provided shipping label. Honestly, it wouldn’t surprise me if later they pretend that they didn’t receive the cameras I sent back, in which I will have to dispute the charge with the credit card company. Maybe it won’t be so difficult, considering they already recognized the charge as potentially fraudulent earlier and even had to call me about it. Obviously, this company’s already somewhat blacklisted in Chase’s database of merchants.

Bottom line: Don’t order from Conns when they have anything “on sale”. In fact, boycott their B&M stores too, because a company like them doesn’t deserve your business.

I will start with material goods on a personal level, because these are the easiest.
Tangible goods on a personal level:
1. A nice pea coat that can match fancier outfits, since I have a scary obsession in matching in fanciness over matching in anything else
2. Discovery of a new fragrance that I can smell and enjoy myself (since I have an unusually dull sense of smell)

Slightly more difficult…
On a personal level, cannot assign a monetary value to:
1. Subscribers who will subscribe to my blog and read it regularly
2. Know what I’m looking for in a potential relationship, maybe I can’t find one because I don’t know what I want

Pretty much impossible now
On a global level:
1. To see US companies that deserve to fail actually fail. This can only happen if the government stops interfering and pumping money into the free market, which is not going to happen the way we’re going.
2. The end of partial communism in practice until humans become like robots and lose all sense of self-interest